Month: September 2025

Complexity, Emergence and the Evolution of Scientific Theories: Towards a Predictive Epistemology, by Miguel Fuentes

This book offers a unique perspective on the evolution of scientific theories through the lens of their changing complexity.

To explore this non-trivial connection, the author draws on well-known historical cases from the philosophy of science tradition to test the central theses of the work. At the same time, the book develops a conceptual framework in which the debates on emergence and complexity play a central role.

The opening chapter provides the historical background of emergence, examining both classical and contemporary perspectives, highlighting diverse viewpoints and their contributions to the current discussion.

The second chapter turns to the foundations of complexity science, detailing its key methodologies and emphasizing the role of information in describing and modeling systems.

Building on this foundation, the book introduces a novel quantitative definition of emergent properties, grounded in the concept of parametric model complexity. It discusses how slight variations in control parameters can generate universal features and explores the implications of these dynamics for our understanding of systemic behavior.

Finally, the author shows how this framework illuminates critical aspects of scientific practice, ranging from the criteria guiding theory choice to the relationship between technological innovation and the risk of the appearance of anomalies. By combining historical analysis, conceptual innovation, and formal modeling, the book presents a compelling vision of how complexity and emergence can be predictive indicators of theoretical transformation, recognizing the moments when our current models have reached their limits.

More at: link.springer.com

Could humans and AI become a new evolutionary individual?

Paul B. Rainey and Michael E. Hochberg

PNAS 122 (37) e2509122122

Artificial intelligence (AI)—broadly defined as the capacity of engineered systems to perform tasks that would require intelligence if done by humans—is increasingly embedded in the infrastructure of human life. From personalized recommendation systems to large-scale decision-making frameworks, AI shapes what humans see, choose, believe, and do (1, 2). Much of the current concern about AI centers on its understanding, safety, and alignment with human values (3–5). But alongside these immediate challenges lies a broader, more speculative, and potentially more profound question: could the deepening interdependence between humans and AI give rise to a new kind of evolutionary individual? We argue that as interdependencies grow, humans and AI could come to function not merely as interacting agents, but as an integrated evolutionary individual subject to selection at the collective level.

Read the full article at: www.pnas.org

DYNAMIC MODELS OF GENTRIFICATION

GIOVANNI MAURO, NICOLA PEDRESCHI, RENAUD LAMBIOTTE, and LUCA PAPPALARDO

Advances in Complex SystemsVol. 28, No. 06, 2540006 (2025)

The phenomenon of gentrification of an urban area is characterized by the displacement of lower-income residents due to rising living costs and an influx of wealthier individuals. This study presents an agent-based model that simulates urban gentrification through the relocation of three income groups — low, middle, and high — driven by living costs. The model incorporates economic and sociological theories to generate realistic neighborhood transition patterns. We introduce a temporal network-based measure to track the outflow of low-income residents and the inflow of middle- and high-income residents over time. Our experiments reveal that high-income residents trigger gentrification and that our network-based measure consistently detects gentrification patterns earlier than traditional count-based methods, potentially serving as an early detection tool in real-world scenarios. Moreover, the analysis highlights how city density promotes gentrification. This framework offers valuable insights for understanding gentrification dynamics and informing urban planning and policy decisions.

Read the full article at: www.worldscientific.com

INFERRING FINANCIAL STOCK RETURNS CORRELATION FROM COMPLEX NETWORK ANALYSIS

IXANDRA ACHITOUV

Advances in Complex SystemsVol. 28, No. 06, 2540005 (2025)

Financial stock returns correlations have been studied in the prism of random matrix theory to distinguish the signal from the “noise”. Eigenvalues of the matrix that are above the rescaled Marchenko–Pastur distribution can be interpreted as collective modes behavior while the modes under are usually considered as noise. In this analysis, we use complex network analysis to simulate the “noise” and the “market” component of the return correlations, by introducing some meaningful correlations in simulated geometric Brownian motion for the stocks. We find that the returns correlation matrix is dominated by stocks with high eigenvector centrality and clustering found in the network. We then use simulated “market” random walks to build an optimal portfolio and find that the overall return performs better than using the historical mean-variance data, up to 50% on short-time scale.

Read the full article at: www.worldscientific.com

Generalizing thermodynamic efficiency of interactions: inferential, information-geometric and computational perspectives

Qianyang Chen, Nihat Ay, Mikhail Prokopenko

Self-organizing systems consume energy to generate internal order. The concept of thermodynamic efficiency, drawing from statistical physics and information theory, has previously been proposed to characterize a change in control parameter by relating the resulting predictability gain to the required amount of work. However, previous studies have taken a system-centric perspective and considered only single control parameters. Here, we generalize thermodynamic efficiency to multi-parameter settings and derive two observer-centric formulations. The first, an inferential form, relates efficiency to fluctuations of macroscopic observables, interpreting thermodynamic efficiency in terms of how well the system parameters can be inferred from observable macroscopic behaviour. The second, an information-geometric form, expresses efficiency in terms of the Fisher information matrix, interpreting it with respect to how difficult it is to navigate the statistical manifold defined by the control protocol. This observer-centric perspective is contrasted with the existing system-centric view, where efficiency is considered an intrinsic property of the system.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org