Month: February 2019

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States

Accurate prediction of the size and timing of infectious disease outbreaks could help public health officials in planning an appropriate response. This paper compares approaches developed by five different research groups to forecast seasonal influenza outbreaks in real time in the United States. Many of the models show more accurate forecasts than a historical baseline. A major impediment to predictive ability was the real-time accuracy of available data. The field of infectious disease forecasting is in its infancy and we expect that innovation will spur improvements in forecasting in the coming years.

 

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States
Nicholas G. Reich, Logan C. Brooks, Spencer J. Fox, Sasikiran Kandula, Craig J. McGowan, Evan Moore, Dave Osthus, Evan L. Ray, Abhinav Tushar, Teresa K. Yamana, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Roni Rosenfeld, and Jeffrey Shaman
PNAS published ahead of print January 15, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812594116

Source: www.pnas.org

Multiplex Networks: Basic Formalism and Structural Properties

This book provides the basis of a formal language and explores its possibilities in the characterization of multiplex networks. Armed with the formalism developed, the authors define structural metrics for multiplex networks. A methodology to generalize monoplex structural metrics to multiplex networks is also presented so that the reader will be able to generalize other metrics of interest in a systematic way. Therefore, this book will serve as a guide for the theoretical development of new multiplex metrics.

Furthermore, this Brief describes the spectral properties of these networks in relation to concepts from algebraic graph theory and the theory of matrix polynomials. The text is rounded off by analyzing the different structural transitions present in multiplex systems as well as by a brief overview of some representative dynamical processes.

Multiplex Networks will appeal to students, researchers, and professionals within the fields of network science, graph theory, and data science.

 

Multiplex Networks: Basic Formalism and Structural Properties (SpringerBriefs in Complexity)
by Emanuele Cozzo, Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda, Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues, Yamir Moreno

Source: www.amazon.com

Viruses as Complex Adaptive Systems (Ricard Solé & Santiago F. Elena)

Viruses are everywhere, infecting all sorts of living organisms, from the tiniest bacteria to the largest mammals. Many are harmful parasites, but viruses also play a major role as drivers of our evolution as a species and are essential regulators of the composition and complexity of ecosystems on a global scale. This concise book draws on complex systems theory to provide a fresh look at viral origins, populations, and evolution, and the coevolutionary dynamics of viruses and their hosts.

New viruses continue to emerge that threaten people, crops, and farm animals. Viruses constantly evade our immune systems, and antiviral therapies and vaccination campaigns can be powerless against them. These unique characteristics of virus biology are a consequence of their tremendous evolutionary potential, which enables viruses to quickly adapt to any environmental challenge. Ricard Solé and Santiago Elena present a unified framework for understanding viruses as complex adaptive systems. They show how the application of complex systems theory to viral dynamics has provided new insights into the development of AIDS in patients infected with HIV-1, the emergence of new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus, and other cutting-edge advances.

Essential reading for biologists, physicists, and mathematicians interested in complexity, Viruses as Complex Adaptive Systems also extends the analogy of viruses to the evolution of other replicators such as computer viruses, cancer, and languages.

Source: www.amazon.com

The Discrete Charm of the Machine: Why the World Became Digital (Kenneth Steiglitz)

A few short decades ago, we were informed by the smooth signals of analog television and radio; we communicated using our analog telephones; and we even computed with analog computers. Today our world is digital, built with zeros and ones. Why did this revolution occur? The Discrete Charm of the Machine explains, in an engaging and accessible manner, the varied physical and logical reasons behind this radical transformation.

The spark of individual genius shines through this story of innovation: the stored program of Jacquard’s loom; Charles Babbage’s logical branching; Alan Turing’s brilliant abstraction of the discrete machine; Harry Nyquist’s foundation for digital signal processing; Claude Shannon’s breakthrough insights into the meaning of information and bandwidth; and Richard Feynman’s prescient proposals for nanotechnology and quantum computing. Ken Steiglitz follows the progression of these ideas in the building of our digital world, from the internet and artificial intelligence to the edge of the unknown. Are questions like the famous traveling salesman problem truly beyond the reach of ordinary digital computers? Can quantum computers transcend these barriers? Does a mysterious magical power reside in the analog mechanisms of the brain? Steiglitz concludes by confronting the moral and aesthetic questions raised by the development of artificial intelligence and autonomous robots.

The Discrete Charm of the Machine examines why our information technology, the lifeblood of our civilization, became digital, and challenges us to think about where its future trajectory may lead.

Source: www.amazon.com

The Goodness Paradox: The Strange Relationship Between Virtue and Violence in Human Evolution (Richard Wrangham)

We Homo sapiens can be the nicest of species and also the nastiest. What occurred during human evolution to account for this paradox? What are the two kinds of aggression that primates are prone to, and why did each evolve separately? How does the intensity of violence among humans compare with the aggressive behavior of other primates? How did humans domesticate themselves? And how were the acquisition of language and the practice of capital punishment determining factors in the rise of culture and civilization?

Authoritative, provocative, and engaging, The Goodness Paradox offers a startlingly original theory of how, in the last 250 million years, humankind became an increasingly peaceful species in daily interactions even as its capacity for coolly planned and devastating violence remains undiminished. In tracing the evolutionary histories of reactive and proactive aggression, biological anthropologist Richard Wrangham forcefully and persuasively argues for the necessity of social tolerance and the control of savage divisiveness still haunting us today.

Source: www.amazon.com