Month: April 2023

Emergent stability in complex network dynamics

Chandrakala Meena, Chittaranjan Hens, Suman Acharyya, Simcha Haber, Stefano Boccaletti & Baruch Barzel
Nature Physics (2023)

The stable functionality of networked systems is a hallmark of their natural ability to coordinate between their multiple interacting components. Yet, real-world networks often appear random and highly irregular, raising the question of what are the naturally emerging organizing principles of complex system stability. The answer is encoded within the system’s stability matrix—the Jacobian—but is hard to retrieve, due to the scale and diversity of the relevant systems, their broad parameter space and their nonlinear interaction dynamics. Here we introduce the dynamic Jacobian ensemble, which allows us to systematically investigate the fixed-point dynamics of a range of relevant network-based models. Within this ensemble, we find that complex systems exhibit discrete stability classes. These range from asymptotically unstable (where stability is unattainable) to sensitive (where stability abides within a bounded range of system parameters). Alongside these two classes, we uncover a third asymptotically stable class in which a sufficiently large and heterogeneous network acquires a guaranteed stability, independent of its microscopic parameters and robust against external perturbation. Hence, in this ensemble, two of the most ubiquitous characteristics of real-world networks—scale and heterogeneity—emerge as natural organizing principles to ensure fixed-point stability in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com

Multidimensional economic complexity and inclusive green growth

Viktor Stojkoski, Philipp Koch & César A. Hidalgo 
Communications Earth & Environment volume 4, Article number: 130 (2023)

To achieve inclusive green growth, countries need to consider a multiplicity of economic, social, and environmental factors. These are often captured by metrics of economic complexity derived from the geography of trade, thus missing key information on innovative activities. To bridge this gap, we combine trade data with data on patent applications and research publications to build models that significantly and robustly improve the ability of economic complexity metrics to explain international variations in inclusive green growth. We show that measures of complexity built on trade and patent data combine to explain future economic growth and income inequality and that countries that score high in all three metrics tend to exhibit lower emission intensities. These findings illustrate how the geography of trade, technology, and research combine to explain inclusive green growth.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com

COVID-19 amplified racial disparities in the US criminal legal system

Brennan Klein, C. Brandon Ogbunugafor, Benjamin J. Schafer, Zarana Bhadricha, Preeti Kori, Jim Sheldon, Nitish Kaza, Arush Sharma, Emily A. Wang, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Samuel V. Scarpino & Elizabeth Hinton
Nature (2023)

The criminal legal system in the USA drives an incarceration rate that is the highest on the planet, with disparities by class and race among its signature features1,2,3. During the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the number of incarcerated people in the USA decreased by at least 17%—the largest, fastest reduction in prison population in American history4. Here we ask how this reduction influenced the racial composition of US prisons and consider possible mechanisms for these dynamics. Using an original dataset curated from public sources on prison demographics across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, we show that incarcerated white people benefited disproportionately from the decrease in the US prison population and that the fraction of incarcerated Black and Latino people sharply increased. This pattern of increased racial disparity exists across prison systems in nearly every state and reverses a decade-long trend before 2020 and the onset of COVID-19, when the proportion of incarcerated white people was increasing amid declining numbers of incarcerated Black people5. Although a variety of factors underlie these trends, we find that racial inequities in average sentence length are a major contributor. Ultimately, this study reveals how disruptions caused by COVID-19 exacerbated racial inequalities in the criminal legal system, and highlights key forces that sustain mass incarceration. To advance opportunities for data-driven social science, we publicly released the data associated with this study at Zenodo6.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com

Behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased income diversity of urban encounters 

Takahiro Yabe, Bernardo García Bulle Bueno, Xiaowen Dong, Alex Pentland & Esteban Moro
Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 2310 (2023)

Diversity of physical encounters in urban environments is known to spur economic productivity while also fostering social capital. However, mobility restrictions during the pandemic have forced people to reduce urban encounters, raising questions about the social implications of behavioral changes. In this paper, we study how individual income diversity of urban encounters changed during the pandemic, using a large-scale, privacy-enhanced mobility dataset of more than one million anonymized mobile phone users in Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Seattle, across three years spanning before and during the pandemic. We find that the diversity of urban encounters has substantially decreased (by 15% to 30%) during the pandemic and has persisted through late 2021, even though aggregated mobility metrics have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Counterfactual analyses show that behavioral changes including lower willingness to explore new places further decreased the diversity of encounters in the long term. Our findings provide implications for managing the trade-off between the stringency of COVID-19 policies and the diversity of urban encounters as we move beyond the pandemic.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com