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Ewan Colman, Rowland R. Kao

Background Testing samples of waste water for markers of infectious disease became a widespread method of surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these data generally correlate well with other indicators of national prevalence, samples that cover localised regions tend to be highly variable over short time scales.

Methods We introduce a procedure for estimating the realtime growth rate of pathogen prevalence using time series data from wastewater sampling. The number of copies of a target gene found in a sample is modelled as time-dependent random variable whose distribution is estimated using maximum likelihood. The output depends on a hyperparameter that controls the sensitivity to variability in the underlying data. We apply this procedure to data reporting the number of copies of the N1 gene of SARS-CoV-2 collected at water treatment works across Scotland between February 2021 and February 2023.

Results The real-time growth rate of the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence is estimated at 121 wastewater sampling sites covering a diverse range of locations and population sizes. We find that the sensitivity of the fitting procedure to natural variability determines its reliability in detecting the early stages of an epidemic wave. Applying the procedure to hospital admissions data, we find that changes in the growth rate are detected an average of 2 days earlier in wastewater than in hospital admissions data.

Conclusion We provide a robust method to generate reliable estimates of epidemic growth from highly variable data. Applying this method to samples collected at wastewater treatment works provides highly responsive situational awareness to inform public health.

Read the full article at: www.medrxiv.org

Darío Alatorre,  Carlos Gershenson, José L. Mateos

PLoS ONE 18(3): e0280487

In contrast with robust systems that resist noise or fragile systems that break with noise, antifragility is defined as a property of complex systems that benefit from noise or disorder. Here we define and test a simple measure of antifragility for complex dynamical systems. In this work we use our antifragility measure to analyze real data from return prices in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Our definition of antifragility is the product of the return price and a perturbation. We explore different types of perturbations that typically arise from within the system. Our results suggest that for both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, the tendency among the ‘top performers’ is to be robust rather than antifragile. It would be important to explore other possible definitions of antifragility to understand its role in financial markets and in complex dynamical systems in general.

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Using Markov chains and temporal alignment to identify clinical patterns in Dementia
Luísa Marote e Costa, João Colaç,, Alexandra M. Carvalho,, Susana Vinga, Andreia Sofia Teixeira

Journal of Biomedical Informatics

In the healthcare sector, resorting to big data and advanced analytics is a great advantage when dealing with complex groups of patients in terms of comorbidities, representing a significant step towards personalized targeting. In this work, we focus on understanding key features and clinical pathways of patients with multimorbidity suffering from Dementia. This disease can result from many heterogeneous factors, potentially becoming more prevalent as the population ages. We present a set of methods that allow us to identify medical appointment patterns within a cohort of 1924 patients followed from January 2007 to August 2021 in Hospital da Luz (Lisbon), and to stratify patients into subgroups that exhibit similar patterns of interaction. With Markov Chains, we are able to identify the most prevailing medical appointments attended by Dementia patients, as well as recurring transitions between these. To perform patient stratification, we applied AliClu, a temporal sequence alignment algorithm for clustering longitudinal clinical data, which allowed us to successfully identify patient subgroups with similar medical appointment activity. A feature analysis per cluster obtained allows the identification of distinct patterns and characteristics. This pipeline provides a tool to identify prevailing clinical pathways of medical appointments within the dataset, as well as the most common transitions between medical specialities within Dementia patients. This methodology, alongside demographic and clinical data, has the potential to provide early signalling of the most likely clinical pathways and serve as a support tool for health providers in deciding the best course of treatment, considering a patient as a whole.

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Eli Newby, Jorge Gómez Tejeda Zañudo, Réka Albert

Because the attractors of biological networks reflect stable behaviors (e.g., cell phenotypes), identifying control interventions that can drive a system towards its attractors (attractor control) is of particular relevance when controlling biological systems. Driving a network’s feedback vertex set (FVS) by node-state override into a state consistent with a target attractor is proven to force every system trajectory to the target attractor, but in biological networks, the FVS is typically larger than can be realistically manipulated. External control of a subset of a biological network’s FVS was proposed as a strategy to drive the network to its attractors utilizing fewer interventions; however, the effectiveness of this strategy was only demonstrated on a small set of Boolean models of biological networks. Here, we extend this analysis to ensembles of biologically-inspired Boolean networks. On these models, we use three structural metrics — PRINCE propagation, modified PRINCE propagation, and CheiRank — to rank FVS subsets by their predicted attractor control strength. We validate the accuracy of these rankings using three dynamical measures: To Control, Away Control, and logical domain of influence. We also calculate the propagation metrics on effective graphs, which incorporate each Boolean model’s functional information into edge weights. While this additional information increases the predicting power of structural metrics, we find that the increase with respect to the unweighted network is limited. The propagation metrics in conjunction with the FVS can be used to identify realizable driver node sets by emulating the dynamics that are prevalent in biological networks. This approach only uses the network’s structure, and the driver sets are shown to be robust to the specific dynamical model.

Read the full article at: arxiv.org