Early epidemiological analysis of the 2019-nCoV outbreak based on a crowdsourced data

Kaiyuan Sun, Jenny Chen, Cécile Viboud.


Starting in December 2019, Chinese health authorities have been closely monitoring a cluster of pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province. It has been determined that the causing agent of the viral pneumonia among affected individuals is a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As of January 29, 2020, a total of 6,088 cases have been detected and confirmed in Mainland China, with more than 70 additional cases detected and confirmed internationally in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, United States, France, Australia, Nepal, Canada, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Finland, and Germany. By using the cases detected outside China we are providing estimates of size of the Wuhan outbreak as of January 29th, 2020.​ By using an estimate of 10 days from exposure to detection and an effective population of 20 million people in Wuhan catchment area the estimated median size of the Wuhan outbreak is 31,200 infections [95% CI: 23,400-40,400]. Technical details are in the full report available below. 

Source: www.mobs-lab.org