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Complexity Digest 2001.39 - 19
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24-Sep-2001

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Complex Challenges: Global 	Terrorist Networks
 









Editor's Notes: Scientists were not an exception
when it came to offering support and help in the aftermath of the
9/11 terror attack. At a MIT workshop experts discussed the
traditional weapons of mass destruction -nuclear, chemical,
biological- but didn't have much to say about civilian airplanes
and box cutters:

Summary: Researchers and antiterrorism experts
held a hastily organized symposium here less than 36 hours
after the suicide attacks on the World Trade Center and the
Pentagon to discuss U.S. R&D efforts to defend against
weapons of mass destruction. Last week's attacks have already
set off a quiet scramble at federal labs across the country to
beef up efforts ranging from new biological and chemical
detection techniques to profiling the behavioral patterns of
terrorist cliques. But some scientists are worried that a
rattled public will expect too much from them.



Antiterrorism
Programs: The Unthinkable Becomes Real For A Horrified
World, Andrew Lawler,
Science 2001 293: 2182-2185



Last week we called for ideas from the complexity community
(ComDig01-38.20.2)
as to what novel, complexity based insights could help to reduce
the threat of terrorism. (We don't say "eliminate" because that
would be as unrealistic as the attempt to "get rid of all the
bugs").

Among the submissions there seemed to be an agreement that
terrorism cannot be fought effectively without treating it as a
system that is tightly connected to other societal subsystems such
as economy, politics, and religion:

"I would like to say that there is a clear connection
to a fallacy observed in the creation of large social
organizations." (Dr.
Jaime Lagunez Otero, Mexico)

"Complexity thinking is not required if all we seek is
revenge. However, Complexity thinking is required if anything
positive is to finally evolve from the terrible events of that
day. Indeed, it is potentially the greatest ever test for
Complexity - to help develop a road map for - "A World without
Terrorism"" (Ian
Robson, UK)

Ian Robson also emphasized that we have to learn from history
for instance the emergence of the Nazi terror in Germany after
WW-I vs the economic development in Germany and Japan after
WW-II:

" After World War II, but before anyone had even
thought of Complexity as a way of thinking, the Western Allies
used similar principles to try and lay the foundations for a
world without world wars. They could have taken the simplistic
view that Hitler started the war in Europe, and Germany must be
made to pay for the atrocities. They could have equally decided
that Japan should pay for its atrocities. That would have been
analogous to the simplistic view taken after WW I."
(Ian Robson,
UK)

Stuart G Hall points out that it would be helpful to have a
good "model" of a terrorist in order to anticipate future
strikes:

"The serious point I guess is that you've got to model
how a terrorist thinks and acts to catch a terrorist. And that
model is ill-served by so called 'hard-science' but better
served by complexity science for a number of good reasons."
(Stuart G Hall,
UK)

"Interesting challenge - as it pits western science against
guerilla/terrorist intuition - with the possibility of
complexity science as a bridge between the two paradigms of
thought + action." (Stuart
Glendinning-Hall, UK)

We will keep this column open for further thoughts on this
topic and invite especially those with links to ongoing
research.



Other Links: 



The
Brookings Project on Terrorism and American Foreign
Policy 


Defeating
The Suicide
Hijackers,
Defeating The Suicide Hijackers, Paul Marks,
Catherine Zandonella and Justin Mullins, New
Scientist Online News, 01/09/19


Fighting
Against Terrorism, Engaging With Islamic
Science,
Nature 413, 235 (2001) 


Technology
Will Assist The Fight Against
Terrorism,
William Triplett, Nature 413, 238 - 239
(2001)





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