Model May Give Two-Year Warning Of El Ni�o

Complexity Digest 2004.16 - 14.01

20-April-2004

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Model May Give Two-Year Warning Of El Ni�o, Natue Science update

Excerpts:

El Ni�o causes droughts and floods once every 3 to 7 years.
� JPL / NASA

Researchers have created a climate model that can successfully predict, in hindsight, the past 24 El Ni�o events with a lead time of two years.

That's a big improvement on previous models, which can only forecast the Pacific climate disruptions six to nine months in advance,(...)

Chen and colleagues fed their model sea surface temperatures from 1856 to 2003. Using a chunk of data, their model could successfully predict the tropical Pacific climate two years later. The model captured all 24 El Ni�o events since 1856; (...).

Source: Model May Give Two-Year Warning Of El Ni�o
[ http://www.nature.com/nsu/040412/040412-5.html ], Heike Langenberg, Nature Science update, 04/04/15