Complexity Digest 2000.05

31-Jan-2000

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  1. The World Economic System Next Article Bookmark and Share

    1. Clinton's Speech at the World Economic Forum, White House Briefing Room Next Article Bookmark and Share

      Excerpts: (...) Today,we know that because of scientific and technological advance, we can change the equation between energy use and economic growth. We can shatter the limits that time and space pose to doing business and getting an education.

      (...) Terrorism, narco-traffickers and organized criminals, they can use all this new technology, too, and take advantage of the openness of societies and borders. They present all of us with new security challenges in the new century. The spread of disease; ethnic, racial, tribal, religious conflicts, rooted in the fear of others who are different -- they seem to find ways to spread in this globalized era.

      (...) First, I think we have got to reaffirm unambiguously that open markets and rules-based trade are the best engine we know of to lift living standards, reduce environmental destruction and build shared prosperity.

      (...) Worldwide, open markets do create jobs. They do raise incomes. They do spark innovation and spread new technology -- they do, coupled with the explosion of international communications through the Internet, which is the fastest-growing network in history.

      (...) How can working conditions be improved and poverty be reduced in developing countries if they are denied these and other opportunities to grow, the things that come with participation in the world economy. No, trade must not be a race to the bottom -- whether we're talking about child labor, basic working conditions or environmental protection. But turning away from trade would keep part of our global community forever on the bottom. That is not the right response.

      (...) If even one-third of the world's subsidies and tariffs in agriculture were eliminated, the poorest developing countries that could export would gain more than $4 billion in economic benefits every single year.

      (...) Particularly in an economy that runs more and more on brainpower, no investment pays off faster than education.

      (...) If we could get the vaccines out to the people who need them in time, we could save millions and millions of lives, and free up billions of dollars to be invested in building those lives, those societies, into strong, productive partners -- not just for trade, but for peace.

      (...) We can also help countries help themselves by lifting their crippling burden of debt, so they'll have more to invest in their people and their future.

      (...) It is one thing to tell people they should stop growing crops that can be turned into drugs that can kill our children, and quite another to tell people, if you do this, by the way, here's a way to support your children.

      (...) But in today's world, developing countries can achieve worker protection and the environment as we were on our path to industrialization.

      (...) So if there is a way for us to find a path of development that improves, rather than aggravates, the difficulties we have with climate change today by reducing rather than increasing greenhouse gases, we are all obligated to do it. That is why, after the Kyoto Protocols, I recommended to all the advanced nations that we engage in emissions trading and vigorous investment of new technologies in developing countries, with an absolute commitment to them that we would not ask them to slow their economic growth.

      (...) We have suggested that the Committee on Trade and the Environment be invited to examine the environmental applications of WTO negotiations in sessions where developing countries form the majority.

      (...) We had a pilot program through our Agency for International Development, working with the garment industry in Bangladesh to take children out of factories and put them back in schools. The program got kids to learn, and actually boosted garment exports, and gave jobs to adults who would otherwise not have had them.

      (...) We have a well-developed WTO for dealing with the trade issues. We don't have very well-developed institutions for dealing with the social issues, the environmental issues, the labor issues, and no forum within which they can all be integrated.

      Clinton's Speech at the World Economic Forum, White House Briefing Room, World Economic Forum

    2. International Corruption, Peter Eigen, Business Week Online Next Article Bookmark and Share

      Economic systems especially on a global level have agents that operate and communicate on different levels: There is one level at the surface, visible to all agents that is governed by official rules and regulations for trading and for doing business. And there is a more covert layer of interactions between agents that shifts the local, evolutionary fitness landscape and which usually is rather non-homogeneous and coupled to different properties of the social and political structure of a region or a country. One example of such a more hidden communication network within national or global economies is the network of corruption. In an on-line video-interview at the Davos World

      Economic Forum Peter Eigen, Chairman and founder of Transparency International discussed some of the current issues of corruption. In the spotlight is the German corruption affair of former chancellor Kohl that caused significant damage to his Christian democratic party especially with regards to upcoming elections. Eigen sees the considerable response to the uncovered corruption news by the German public and media as an encouraging sign for the struggle against corruption. He connected the current cases with a history of exported corruption that facilitated business deals with developing countries. International efforts to outlaw those practices of corruption in foreign countries have made significant progress in the form of conventions against state sanctioned bribes but there are still countries like France and the Netherlands who did not yet sign these conventions.

      Eigen saw as essential parameter that controls the spread of corruption the, freedom of information system in a society. For instance in Germany government records used to be automatically treated as confidential so that it takes extra efforts to make them available to the public. In other countries government records are by default available to public unless declared secret. Such public transparency can significantly reduce the rate at which corrupt interactions take place in a country.

      International Corruption, Peter Eigen, Business Week Online, Wednesday, February 02

    3. Western Investors Interested Primarily In Predictability, Interfax, Moscow Next Article Bookmark and Share

      MOSCOW. Jan 31 (Interfax) - First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov at the world economic forum in Davos said that Western investors were asking primarily about the investment climate and general predictability of the Russian authorities. "The heads of major firms and transnational corporations that have investments in Russia and intend to increase the volume of their capital in the Russian economy pointed to the flaws in Russian laws, even though these flaws do not scare them or constitute the biggest obstacle," he said. "The fact that these laws change every day is the biggest obstacle" for investors, Kasyanov said.

      In a Sunday interview with the Russian ORT channel he said that the West "hopes that the new situation arising today, relations between the government and the Duma and parliament as a whole, will help to correct many flaws." He quoted the opinion of investors that the situation in taxation should now be improved. Kasyanov said that Russia is moving along the road of integration in the world economy and its participation in the international division of labor is absolutely necessary. He felt that in order to make this road shorter and more professional, Russia should coordinate its moves with international financial institutions, which act as experts and reflect the opinion of the entire international community in this sphere.

      He was sure that "the continuation of cooperation with the IMF and other international organizations is absolutely necessary for Russia not from the viewpoint of getting money, important though it is, but from the viewpoint of checking the quality of the steps and measures which the government will be adopting."

      • Comment: (Dean LeBaron): Following on desire for predictability...not entirely possible in a complexity situation. A more accurate request might be for less bureaucratic uncertainty and corruption (which is an attempt to get predictable results).
      • Editor's Comment: This article from Interfax was taken from David Johnson's Russia list. Kasyanov's talk at the session " Russia at a crossroad" of the World Economic Forum is available as streaming video.

    4. History of the World Economic Forum Meetings in Davos, Dean LeBaron Next Article Bookmark and Share

      The founder and chairman of World Economic Forum (non-profit) is Prof Klaus Schwab, a cultivated German living in Geneva. He started the Davos meetings thirty years ago on the premise that leaders of business, academia, arts and politics would meet in an informal, isolated setting to discuss, without distractions, the main issues of the day. Complexity is almost always one of the science topics although at a theoretical level rather than in its applications to the other issues being discussed.

      Davos, a small village known for its world class skiing, in the Engadin section of Switzerland was chosen as the venue. From a modest beginning of several hundred people and with close sponsorship by the major Swiss financial institutions, the annual meeting at Davos has grown to several thousand. Importance of the participants is controlled by limited membership and fees in the tens of thousands of Swiss francs. Informal attire during the day is encouraged as is attendance at evening social affairs as couples...in business attire except for one evening in black tie. The facilities of this small village are stretched with the addition of several thousand people with the overflow going to nearby Klosters.

      Although selling and self-promotion is prohibited, clearly that is the motive for most of the speakers and participants. If sales material can not be handed out, business cards seem as plentiful as snow flakes and electronic contact systems giving internal email messages to meet at the coffee bars to discuss "common interests" are common. What started as a single annual meeting is now an organization which runs important regional meetings, approximately one every several months, and a magazine, World Link. I have attended the meetings for about half of its history and spoken once or twice. And although I have disliked the crowds, I never felt it was other than worthwhile.

      For the past five years, Prof Schwab has initiated several attempts to incorporate the net into the meeting structure. He knows that networking is becoming electronic but has yet to find the formula that works with the Davos meeting. This year web-streaming and tools for online participants and press were more than ever before. As a participant from my home in New Hampshire the sites seemed well used during the meeting times but access was easily available through the archive.

      Topics almost always have a global theme whether in business, politics, science or culture. This year was no exception. And an extra feature is that, most years, a casual meeting of leaders may produce a combination that solves a seemingly intractable problem. And that is the essence of an adaptive system, to promote connections to allow a best solution to emerge.

      Contributed by Dean LeBaron

    5. Virtual Davos, Dean LeBaron Next Article Bookmark and Share

      What is the difference between attending Davos, in corpus, versus through the meeting web site? As a longtime regular at the meetings and a fan of its purposes and as a sometime advisor to the World Economic Forum on its electronic initiatives, I might be able to give a good answer.

      The experience of sharing the presence of leaders in the informal meals, corridors, sports and unguarded moments produces images that the world's problems can be handled. They are up close, like the people. And seeing common ground emerge between business and other key elements, like the influence of business dealings between Arabs and Israelis, is heartening.

      The village of Davos is contained which facilitates security that is essential to get leaders to come to this place. There are only two roads into the village, one train line and helicopter service. But the weather can be bad as Bill Clinton found out this year having to drive out (a stop for a pizza at the Movenpic on the autobahn about 1 km from Weesen, my home...last year Al Gore took the train and reputedly did not like it). Hotel rooms are rigidly controlled by WEF for the occasion. And one sees a steady stream of clean gray or black Audi A8's shuttling important people back and forth (Audi is a sponsor of the meeting). After a year or two one learns how to sign up for the prized meetings and informal meals with speakers and to juggle several evening invitations at once. But you can only be in one place at a time.

      WEF has made a major effort to set a complete online presence this year. The site http://www.weforum.org/has most of the major speeches given in the Congress Center, a large meeting room holding 1500 people. The same electronic feed that goes from the meeting site to adjacent rooms for overflows, press and is fed to hotels has been put on the web. The advantage of the web is that one can attend meetings that are held simultaneously by going to the archive. Also the web site holds press briefings, special presentations by some participants and a summary of the day by a WEF reporter. There are also photos and other resources. Members of the Foundation have password access to the list of participants as they would have by being present and have a full program, whether or not the meetings are web available (and most of the smaller specialized meetings are not streamed).

      What did I miss by not being there moving from my usual room at the Schachtzalp? The casual meetings with friends whom I would often see only once a year at this meeting although some I would see in a business connection in between. I missed the chance to probe deeper into the ideas of friends who might be speaking. And the chance, unpredictable event that always makes each year important.

      And what did I get out of attending the meetings from the comfort of my own study? I attended the meetings when I wanted to and when I wanted to leave it was not necessary to sneak out the door. I could attend several meetings in succession which were otherwise at the same time. The web streaming was very professionally done which gave a clearer impression of facial expression than was possible for people in the hall. And I am carrying away a vivid understanding of the issues...just as in former years.

      Which is better? I guess it depends on the person. For some who need direct human contact to be meaningful and perhaps for those who have not gone before, attendance in person may be better. For others, and I am one, who do not mind being outside the inner ring and being with tens of thousands of people, the net solution seems right.

      Contributed by Dean LeBaron

    6. What Really Sabotaged the Seattle Trade Talks, Business Week Next Article Bookmark and Share

      Life on earth has been around for billions of years, humanoid species for millions of years and human civilizations for thousands of years. Each of the three examples represents an increasingly higher level of self-organization and developments at accelerating time-scales. Do they also indicate a decreasing level of diversity? All of our humanoid relatives are extinct (the latest survivors, the Neanderthals just a short time before the advent of civilizations) and today we witness the struggle for survival of the last tribal forms of human social organizations.

      Some feel that globalization as represented for instance by the world trade organization (WTO) leads to a decline in diversity of human cultures and to a global Mac Donald society with a ''race to the bottom'' in labor standards. Laura D'andrea Tyson does not think that these or similar factors were the reason for the failure of the WTO negotiations in Seattle. Instead she lists three causes for the collapse of the negotiations: the immaturity of the WTO process; the large number of participants, many of whom were new to multilateral trade talks; and the complicated nature of the trade issues under discussion.

      She expects that "focused negotiations on trade issues in specific sectors among a smaller group of WTO members are a promising alternative" and mentions progress in negotiations in areas of information technology, telecommunications, and financial services. A problem with that approach might be that these sectors might be treated in isolation and without proper consideration of their interconnectedness with other areas like cultural, labor, and environmental issues.

      The WTO's secretive ways of making decisions and general lack of transparency of its operations also are not helpful in dispersing the suspicion of corruption and getting the support especially of third world countries. There are, however, examples of successful global, multilateral treaties in the environmental area including the Montreal Protocol on ozone depletion and the Kyoto agreement on global warming.

      In the context of complex adaptive systems it is interesting that the WTO recognizes its power in the form of trade sanctions to modify the fitness landscape for national decisions in global environmental issues: Since the global environment is essential for the survival of the global community it needs to be protected against the interests of individual nations. D'andrea Tyson even suggests the formation of a new Global Environmental Organization to establish the principles, processes, and rules for new multilateral agreements.

      Similar agreements in the area of labor standards appear to be more difficult: so far the only WTO labor standard is the prohibition against prison labor.

      What Really Sabotaged the Seattle Trade Talks, Laura D'andrea Tyson, Business Week

  2. Swarms of Robots Solve Complex Problems, Business Week Online Next Article Bookmark and Share

    Agent based modeling is an increasingly popular way of solving a number of complex problems in different fields. Swarms of simulated agents follow their local rules and interact with each others while searching for a solution to a computational problems. Dedicated software environments like the Swarm allow the user to use high level tools and libraries to set up the simulations.

    While all of these activities are happening in CyberSpace and the agents are made of software only, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico have implemented some of these artificial life ideas into hardware: the agents are actually little robots that autonomously navigate in difficult but real terrains and cooperate to solve real problems of military and civilian applications. Among them are clearing of mine fields and other operations in dangerous environments or for instance the search for victims of avalanche accidents (Business week asks: "But Will They Bring A Little Keg Of Brandy?").

    The autonomy and communication among the robots would indicate a major step forward in robotics applications that in the past depended on remote operators that basically had to individually radio-control each robot. The next generation robot would be smart enough to make for example many navigational decisions only based on information about the goal, the current location (determined by global positioning systems), the observed environment and perhaps input from other robots in the swarm.


  3. Computer analysis dates HIV virus to 1930, Nando Media, Associated Press Next Article Bookmark and Share

    By analyzing the genetic material of currently existing organisms and by carefully studying the types of genetic variations among individuals researchers are able today to travel back in time to points in which mutations and variations happened. For instance this method was used to demonstrate the "Out of Africa" hypothesis that states that the common ancestors of all living humans originated in Africa. The technique could not only do that but also determine with surprising accuracy where in Africa and when in time this happened.

    From the degree of variation between two individuals they can tell how genetically distant they are from each other. This genetic distance translates into a time, namely the time in the past when they had a common ancestor. This mapping from genetic distance to time is not completely unproblematic: It is based on the assumption that genetic mutations take place at a constant rate. It is known, however that evolution is punctuated: There is little mutation going on over a long stretch of time and then there is a sudden burst of variation, followed by another quiet period. For that reason very sophisticated statistical tools have been developed to estimate the most likely time in the past when a separation between genetic variants took place.

    Bette Korber of the Los Alamos National Laboratory used their Nirvana supercomputer to pinpoint another out-of-Africa event: The origin of the aids virus that infects more than 40 million people around the world was believed to be located in Africa and started to infect humans around 50 years ago. Korber's extensive computational analysis could assign a high probability that the aids virus moved from chimps to humans at a single occasion (therefore that virus is named "HIV-Eve") around 1930, possibly earlier if it remained in a small group. This information will be useful to develop strategies to contain and eventually subdue this dangerous virus.

    Computer analysis dates HIV virus to 1930 , Nando Media, Associated Press
    HIV Sequence Database

  4. Scientists Create RNA Computer, Princeton University, ScienceDaily Magazine Next Article Bookmark and Share

    PRINCETON, N.J. -- Princeton University researchers have developed a kind of computer that uses the biological molecule RNA to solve complex problems. The achievement marks a significant advance in molecular computing, an emerging field in which scientists are harnessing molecules such as DNA and RNA to solve certain problems more efficiently than could be done by conventional computing.

    In work to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Princeton scientists used a test tube containing 1,024 different strands of RNA to solve a simple version of the "knight problem," a chess puzzle that is representative of a class of problems that requires brute-force computing. The knight problem asks how many and where can one place knights on a chessboard so they can not attack each other. For the purposes of their experiment, the researchers restricted the board to just nine squares, so there were 512 possible combinations. Of these, the RNA computer correctly identified 43 solutions.

    It also produced one incorrect response, highlighting the need to develop error-checking techniques in chemical computing.

    This test-tube computer does not have any immediate applications, and it will probably never completely replace silicon technology. But it does have attractive aspects, said assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology Laura Landweber who led the research project in collaboration with professor of computer science Richard Lipton, and postdoctoral fellow Dirk Faulhammer and a student, Anthony Cukras.

    "It begs the question, What is a computer?" said Landweber. "A computer can be an abacus, it can be many types of devices. This is really an abstraction of a computer."

    One advantage, said Landweber, is that the genetic molecules DNA and RNA, which encode all the instructions for creating and running life, can store much more data in a given space than conventional memory chips. Another benefit is that, with vast numbers of genetic fragments floating in a test tube, a biomolecular computer could perform thousands or millions of calculations at the same time. It is an extreme example of parallel computing, which is a rapidly growing area of computer technology.

    For example, in the knight problem, each strand of RNA represented a possible solution, but the researchers did not need to sort through each one individually; in a series of five steps, a specially targeted enzyme slashed away all the strands that did not match the requirements of a correct solution. Researchers believe that such techniques could be valuable for problems that need to be solved by trial and error, where it is cumbersome to test possible solutions one at a time.

    DNA computing has attracted considerable attention from researchers since 1994 when Leonard Adleman of the University of Southern California used DNA to solve a version of an archetypal problem called the traveling salesman problem. The idea is that words written in the letters of DNA, referred to as A, T, C and G, could represent the ones and zeroes used in computer logic. Computing is accomplished by eliminating molecules whose sequences appear to be poor solutions and retaining ones that seem more promising. The output of final molecules can be read like the holes punched in an old-fashioned computer tape.

    Landweber found that substituting RNA for DNA gave her more flexibility in developing a computing system. With DNA, there is a limited set of restriction enzymes - a kind of molecular scissors - so scientists may not be able to cut the molecule where they want. With RNA, Landweber's group could use just one universal enzyme that targets any part of the molecule. This aspect streamlines their approach and makes it inherently 'scalable' to larger problems.


  5. Life and Evolution in Computers, Santa Fe Institute Working Papers Next Article Bookmark and Share

    Excerpt: Can we build computers that are intelligent and alive? This question has been on the minds of computer scientists since the dawn of the computer age and remains a most compelling line of inquiry. Some would argue that the question makes sense only if we put scare quotes around "intelligent" and "alive," since we're talking about computers, after all, not biological organisms. My own view is that the answer is unequivocally yes, no scare quotes or other punctuation needed, but that to get there our notions of life, intelligence, and computation will have to be deepened considerably.

    You can ask ten biologists what are the ten (or 20 or 100) key requisites for life and you'll get a different list each time. But most are likely to include autonomy, metabolism, self-reproduction, survival instinct, and evolution and adaptation. As a start, can we understand these processes mechanistically and capture them in computers?

    Many people have argued a vehement "no" for the following reasons:

    • Autonomy: "A computer can't do anything on its own; it can do only what humans program it to do."
    • Metabolism: "Computers can't create or gather their own energy from their environment like living organisms do; they have to be fed energy (e.g., electricity) by humans."
    • Self-reproduction: "A computer can't reproduce itself; to do so it would have to contain a description of itself, and that description would have to contain a description of itself, and so on ad infinitum."
    • Survival instinct: "Computers don't care whether they survive or not." (For example, from an editorial in the Boston Globe: "Deep Blue may have beat Kasparov, but it didn't get any joy out of it.")
    • Evolution and adaptation: "A computer can't evolve or adapt on its own; it is restricted to change only in ways specified ahead of time by its programmer."

    Although these arguments are still believed by a great many people, all of them have been disproven in one way or another in the field of Artificial Life. In this paper I will focus on those issues most closely related to Darwinism/self-reproduction and evolution.


  6. The Geometry of Shape Space: Application to Influenza, Santa Fe Institute Working Papers Next Article Bookmark and Share

    Abstract: Shape space was proposed by Perelson and Oster 20 years ago as a conceptual formalism in which to represent antibody/antigen binding. It has since played a key role in computational immunology. Antigens and antibodies are thought of as points in an abstract "shape space" where coordinates of points in this space represent generalized physico-chemical properties associated with various (unspecified) physical properties related to binding, such as geometric shape, hydrophobicity, charge, etc. Distances in shape space between points representing antibodies and (the shape complement of)antigens are assumed to be related to their affinity, with small distances corresponding to high affinity. Up to now, coordinates of points in shape space have been purely implicit. In this paper we provide algorithms, related to metric and ordinal multi-dimensional scaling algorithms

    Explicit numerical values are provided by the algorithms for co-ordinates of molecules in shape space, whereas previously such coordinates have been a conceptual construct and totally implicit. The deduction of the explicit geometry of shape space given experimental affinity data provides new ways to quantify the similarity of antibodies to antibodies, antigens to antigens, and the affinity of antigens to antibodies. This has potential utility in, e.g., strain selection decisions for annual influenza vaccines, among other applications. The analysis techniques presented here are not restricted to analysis of antibody-antigen interactions and are generally applicable to affinity data resulting from binding assays.


  7. Epidemics and Percolation in Small-World Networks, Santa Fe Institute Working Papers Bookmark and Share

    The small world phenomenon (related to the "Kevin Bacon game, see SFI bulletin, fall 1999) describes the curious observation that if we think of a random person, Kevin Bacon say, then we know someone who knows someone who knows someone else who knows almost certainly that person. The reason for this phenomenon is the fact that most people have clusters of acquaintances who know each other mutually but typically we also know a few people who are from a very different social or geographically distant group. Moore and. Newman study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. They tested their theoretical results with computer simulations.
    Excerpt: It has long been recognized that the structure of social networks plays an important role in the dynamics of disease propagation. Networks showing the "small-world" effect where the number of "degrees of separation" between any two members of a given population is small by comparison with the size of the population itself, show much faster disease propagation than, for instance, simple diffusion models on regular lattices.

    Milgram was one of the first to point out the existence of small-world effects in real populations. He performed experiments which suggested that there are only about six intermediate acquaintances separating any two people on the planet, which in turn suggests that a highly infectious disease could spread to all six billion people on the planet in only about six incubation periods of the disease.

    Epidemics and Percolation in Small-World Networks, Cristopher Moore and M.E.J. Newman, Santa Fe Institute Working Papers 00-01-002

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